Miguel Fernandez Morales, LLB, MBA's blog

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on December 7, 2022

Homeownership market activity in November continued to be influenced by the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability. Sales were down markedly compared to the same period last year, following the trend that unfolded since the commencement of interest rate hikes in the spring. New listings were also down substantially from last year, and at a very low level historically. The fact that the supply of homes for sale has remained low, has supported average selling prices at the $1.08 to $1.09 million mark since August.

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Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on December 7, 2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. Global economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy is weakening but consumption continues to be solid and the labour market remains...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on December 19, 2022

The Canadian real estate market saw its fair share of highs and lows in 2022. With the new year right around the corner, what can we anticipate in 2023? Lauren Haw, CEO of Zoocasa described the theme of 2023 as being "all about timing". Here are five trends that we have our eye on:

1. Rate Increases Will Catch Up to Homeowners

In our 2022 market predictions, we expected that rising interest rates would be top of mind. Many planned for interest rates to mimic 2018 trends. During that year the Bank of Canada increased rates...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on January 27, 2023

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 0.25% in its first rate announcement of the year, increasing the cost of borrowing for the 8th consecutive time.

The Bank stated that economic growth was stronger than expected and our economy is still in excess demand. Inflation declined to 6.3% in December, however despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the effects of high inflation in essential household expenses.

As the impact of rising rates continues to work through the economy, the Bank projects that...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on January 27, 2023

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

"Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on February 24, 2023

As we moved from 2022 into 2023, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market unfolded as expected. The number of January sales and the overall average selling price were similar to December 2022. On a year-over-year basis, both sales and prices were down markedly, continuing to highlight the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability over the last year.

"Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on February 24, 2023

Despite the cold winter season that often discourages buyers and sellers alike from entering the market, new listings have increased by a staggering 88% since December. This January, 7,688 new listings entered Toronto and GTA markets, an increase of 88% month-over-month, compared to the 4,074 newly listed properties in December 2022.

This level of new listings is right on the heels of the numbers in January 2020, which was eight rate hikes and one pandemic ago. There were 7,836 new listings in January 2020, just 1.9% more...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on March 3, 2023

February sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were down substantially from the pre-rate hike levels of early 2022. However, the number of new listings also dropped substantially year-over-year. The result was that the average selling price and MLS® HPI continued to level off after trending lower through the spring and summer of last year.

“It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on June 2, 2023

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to tighten in April 2023. On a year-over-year basis, sales edged lower compared to April 2022, but new listings were down by more than one-third. Fewer listings relative to sales meant there was more competition between buyers, supporting an improvement in selling prices since the beginning of this year.

“In line with TRREB’s outlook and recent consumer polling results, we are seeing a gradual improvement in sales and average selling price. Many buyers have come to terms...

Written by Miguel Fernandez Morales | Published on June 12, 2023

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to improve from a sales perspective in May 2023. Unfortunately, the supply of homes for sale did not keep up with the demand for ownership housing. Sales as a share of new listings were up dramatically compared to a year ago. This is a clear signal that competition between buyers increased substantially compared to last year, resulting in the average selling price reaching almost $1.2 million last month.

“Despite the fact that we have seen positive policy direction over...